Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc43…1271 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$2
sports 3% −$6
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 +1.3% -8.4% 32% 5% -9.6%
all 19 +1.3% -8.4% 32% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage84d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $490 $491 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $490 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $490 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $488 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $488 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $487 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $487 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $487 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $487 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $488 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $488 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $488 $0 -0%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $484 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season? Apr 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 06 $196 −$5 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $490 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $490 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $490 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $490 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $490 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $489 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $488 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $488 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $488 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $488 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $487 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $487 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $487 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $487 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $488 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $488 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $488 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 15? SELL No 100¢ $488 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $488 73d
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr SELL Yes 100¢ $2 75d
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 12? SELL No 100¢ $484 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $484 76d
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 76d
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 77d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.98 · official $490.88 (match) · 39 history records