Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc43…f930 other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$706 (+27%) realized +$731 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%35W / 46L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$44
30 days+$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$261
sports 18% +$368
crypto 8% −$3
world 6% +$110
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.2% -13.4% 20% 20% +37.6%
≤30d 9 -25.8% -32.9% 22% 22% +56.8%
≤90d 53 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 42% +23.8%
all 81 -13.7% -21.9% 43% 42% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 42% +23.3%
10% -29.4% 42% +11.5%
15% -36.2% 41% +0.7%
20% -42.5% 40% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$15 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$731
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses35 / 46
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 90
History coverage244d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $150 $110 −$40 (-27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $22 −$7 (-25%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $10 −$15 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $10 +$39 +379%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$34 -61%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $394 +$351 +89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 2 Aston Villa FC? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 1 Aston Villa FC? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $31 +$9 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $30 +$25 +83%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $24 +$16 +65%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 20 $154 +$110 +72%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $31 +$26 +85%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $25 −$18 -72%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $30 +$44 +146%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $27 +$28 +104%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-10? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-01-22? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 26? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-25? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-02? Apr 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $75 +$60 +81%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $25 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 02 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 35¢ $20 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 18¢ $26 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 20¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY $5 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 32¢ $10 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 30¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $10 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $86 35d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $182 40d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 40d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 44d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 46d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 51d
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 2 Aston Villa FC? BUY Yes $2 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.68 · official $324.84 · 190 history records