Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdc40…9c9d crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,395 (+5%) realized +$2,403 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,033per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$238est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,757
7 days+$1,757
14 days+$1,603
30 days+$1,603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$4,776
sports 28% +$4,893
crypto 8% +$1,632
world 0% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 35% -6.0%
≤30d 38 -1.5% -10.8% 42% 34% -6.3%
≤90d 38 -1.5% -10.8% 42% 34% -6.3%
all 38 -1.5% -10.8% 42% 34% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 34% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 29% -15.3%
15% -27.2% 26% -23.5%
20% -34.3% 26% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$665 vs −$411 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$2,403
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$238
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1,033
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$49 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,037 +$325 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,037 +$1,685 +56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15,073 −$4,398 -29%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,257 +$2,900 +68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8,623 −$4,382 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,010 +$4,013 +80%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,525 −$16 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,351 +$1,687 +50%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $154 −$154 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.01 · official $22.01 (match) · 133 history records