Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc3e…a128 sports 57 markets active 1d ago coverage 660d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate70%38W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$28
other 25% −$2
tech 11% +$20
crypto 9% −$6
finance 2% −$8
world 2% +$6
economics 0% +$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 4 +22.4% +10.7% 100% 50% -1.6%
≤90d 18 +4.0% -5.9% 78% 28% -10.0%
all 54 -1.8% -11.2% 70% 35% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 35% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 22% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 13% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

660d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses38 / 16
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage660d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-2%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 91¢ 83¢ $73 $66 −$6 (-9%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 84¢ 82¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 17¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $301 +$7 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $269 +$20 +7%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 25 $50 +$13 +26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 19 $31 +$16 +53%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB May 16 $68 +$4 +6%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 09 $62 −$62 -99%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $149 +$13 +9%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $168 −$67 -40%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 02 $171 +$13 +8%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $77 −$9 -12%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $143 +$4 +3%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 15 $16 +$9 +58%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $27 +$9 +32%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 14 $108 +$18 +16%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 03 $102 +$6 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 23 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Mar 22 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Solana reach $120 in March? Mar 22 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 18 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Mar 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $59 +$8 +13%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 02 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Solana dip to $110 in January? Jan 29 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Jan 13 $13 +$2 +12%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 11 $13 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $27 +$1 +5%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Dec 09 $5 $0 +1%
BNB all time high by December 31? Dec 09 $36 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 26 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Nov 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $140 in November? Nov 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Oct 29 $6 $0 +2%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Oct 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $5 +$1 +22%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 07 $1 $0 +22%
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 07 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 01 $6 +$2 +36%
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 15 $2 $0 +11%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Jan 08 $1 +$1 +89%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 28 $2 $0 +24%
No Solana all time high in 2024? Nov 18 $9 −$8 -84%
Will Biden finish his term? Nov 10 $2 $0 +11%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 29 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $238 28h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 38h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 4d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 4d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $289 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $269 18d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $301 18d
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 SELL Over 5.5 99¢ $64 23d
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5.5 78¢ $50 28d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 40¢ $47 29d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 90¢ $70 32d
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB SELL Yes 100¢ $72 32d
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB BUY Yes 94¢ $68 32d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 39d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 80¢ $62 39d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $163 42d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 91¢ $149 45d
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 84¢ $51 45d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 30¢ $31 45d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 98¢ $130 46d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 93¢ $67 48d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Lakers 82¢ $68 48d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 94¢ $70 51d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 92¢ $77 51d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $147 51d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $45 52d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) SELL Real Madrid CF 99¢ $25 62d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 62¢ $16 62d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $36 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.02 · official $186.02 (match) · 137 history records