Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc3d…d1a4 weather 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%32W / 22L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% +$7
tech 24% −$1
other 12% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 +0.0% -9.5% 51% 0% -9.5%
all 54 +0.1% -9.5% 59% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses32 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage111d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 05 $142 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 31 $165 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 29 $73 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $62 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $164 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 21? Apr 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 20? Apr 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 11? Apr 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 8? Apr 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 5? Apr 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 3? Apr 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 4? Apr 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 3 Apr 01 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 29? Mar 30 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 28? Mar 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 25? Mar 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or higher on March 2 Mar 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 23? Mar 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or higher on March 22? Mar 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 19? Mar 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 16? Mar 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 13? Mar 14 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10? Mar 10 $313 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8? Mar 09 $313 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026? Mar 09 $302 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on March 7? Mar 08 $313 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 06 $313 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 4? Mar 05 $313 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Ma Mar 05 $312 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 3? Mar 04 $312 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 3d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $82 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $82 7d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 8d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 10d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 11d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 12d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 13d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 14d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $69 15d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $69 16d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $73 18d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $73 19d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $103 20d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $103 21d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 91¢ $73 22d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 90¢ $73 23d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 25d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 26d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 27d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $62 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $62 33d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 34d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 48d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 52d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 53d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.12 · official $89.12 (match) · 122 history records