Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdc3d…351d sports 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 439d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,602 (-2%) realized −$8,609 · open +$1,007
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate67%173W / 84L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,519per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$384
7 days+$144
14 days+$438
30 days+$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$2,516
politics 25% +$18,609
other 20% −$12,677
world 18% −$17,578
crypto 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.0% -15.8% 64% 64% -3.2%
≤30d 21 +11.5% +0.9% 71% 67% +10.4%
≤90d 61 +14.5% +3.6% 74% 62% -3.3%
all 257 +3.2% -6.7% 67% 49% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 49% -11.9%
10% -15.6% 29% -20.3%
15% -23.8% 18% -28.0%
20% -31.2% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,385) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$827 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$6,206
Realized−$8,609
Unrealized+$1,007
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses173 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions2
Markets (closed)257 / 259
History coverage440d ⚠
Avg bet$1,519
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? No 32¢ 36¢ $5,031 $5,633 +$602 (+12%)
Will Petr Yan fight Sean O’Malley next? Yes 27¢ $168 $573 +$405 (+241%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $435 +$87 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $128 −$128 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $355 +$144 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $47 +$53 +113%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $238 +$62 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $189 +$111 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $244 +$36 +15%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $132 +$67 +51%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $179 −$179 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $275 +$293 +107%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $95 +$9 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $65 +$25 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $37 +$32 +88%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $33 +$4 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $112 +$156 +139%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $166 +$34 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $121 +$19 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $165 −$20 -12%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $169 +$38 +22%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $107 +$58 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $75 +$34 +46%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $66 +$9 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $34 +$34 +99%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $230 −$230 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $184 +$16 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $22 +$1 +6%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $565 −$565 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $256 −$256 -100%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $119 −$29 -24%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $785 +$39 +5%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $42 +$58 +138%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $240 +$160 +67%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $259 +$41 +16%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $111 −$110 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $8 −$4 -53%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $509 +$90 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $308 +$92 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $440 +$59 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 02 $386 +$73 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $330 +$53 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 02 $301 +$38 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $22 −$22 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $279 +$21 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 26 $160 +$40 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 26 $66 +$34 +51%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $585 +$41 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $439 +$140 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 100¢ $499 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 82¢ $414 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Michel Pereira 22¢ $22 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 21¢ $21 2h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 64¢ $87 2h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 64¢ $41 2h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma SELL Ikram Aliskerov 100¢ $499 2h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $56 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $2 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $5 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $54 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $24 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $2 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $36 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $122 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $6 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $47 3h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 47¢ $47 3h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Farman Hasanov 100¢ $300 3h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 80¢ $58 4h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 80¢ $14 4h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 80¢ $8 4h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 79¢ $79 4h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 79¢ $15 4h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 79¢ $65 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 100¢ $300 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ $63 5h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ $63 5h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ $58 5h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,205.79 · official $6,205.79 (match) · 3500 history records