Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdc3c…ad7a
sports · 467 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$398 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$389 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$389
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses154 / 310
Open positions3
Markets (closed)464 / 467
History coverage129d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 3 History 464 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 29? May 29 $1 +$2 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 26? May 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $1 +$2 +201%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 9? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $2 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9? May 09 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 8? May 09 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10? May 09 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 8? May 09 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 8? May 09 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 8? May 09 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8? May 08 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 8? May 08 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 8? May 08 $1 +$1 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 8? May 08 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 8? May 08 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8? May 08 $1 $0 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$552
sports 33% −$91
crypto 13% −$58
weather 11% −$12
economics 3% −$9
world 1% $0
politics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 55¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +20.3% +8.8% 45% 45% +8.6%
≤30d 22 +10.1% -0.4% 45% 41% -0.4%
≤90d 322 -22.3% -29.7% 30% 29% -42.3%
all 464 -10.6% -19.1% 33% 28% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 28% -14.6%
10% -26.8% 25% -22.8%
15% -33.9% 21% -30.2%
20% -40.4% 19% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.78 · official $1.78 (match) · 2818 history records