Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdc3c…124b crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$140 (+1%) realized +$141 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%65W / 13L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$14
14 days+$75
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$6
world 28% +$37
other 15% +$57
sports 5% +$17
economics 3% +$2
politics 2% +$5
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.7% -11.9% 56% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 37 -5.4% -14.4% 78% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 53 -6.0% -14.9% 79% 0% -8.9%
all 78 -3.9% -13.0% 83% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.0%
10% -21.4% 0% -17.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses65 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage214d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$2 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $388 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $293 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $95 −$3 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $333 +$7 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $372 +$8 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $359 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $107 −$1 -0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $366 +$3 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $350 +$10 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $190 +$4 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $304 +$26 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $283 +$17 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $279 +$21 +8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 −$20 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $292 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $298 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $163 −$21 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $313 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $293 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $307 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $295 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $294 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $41 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $295 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $291 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $280 +$10 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $272 +$7 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$3 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $271 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $266 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $254 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,685 +$38 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $239 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? May 27 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $344 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $415 −$83 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $611 +$3 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 21 $99 −$9 -9%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 11 $145 +$4 +3%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 07 $147 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 04 $532 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 01 $147 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 15 $198 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 49¢ $48 16m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $66 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $390 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $135 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $80 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $168 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $81 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $40 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $212 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 93¢ $92 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $333 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $372 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.00 · official $77.00 (match) · 349 history records