Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdc3b…d591 sports 1202 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,903 (-10%) realized −$2,927 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%547W / 645L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$394est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$300
14 days−$1,154
30 days−$6,259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$3,249
other 8% −$25
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -3.7% -12.9% 47% 43% -15.6%
≤30d 1043 -17.7% -25.5% 39% 37% -33.0%
≤90d 1192 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 44% -19.5%
all 1192 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 44% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 44% -19.5%
10% -23.4% 43% -27.2%
15% -30.8% 42% -34.3%
20% -37.6% 36% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized−$2,927
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses547 / 645
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$394
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1192 / 1202
History coverage158d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 49¢ 69¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Cash/Tracy 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $27 +$23 +86%
ITF Klosters: Noah Karma vs Justin Schlageter Jun 18 $11 +$10 +93%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $44 +$6 +14%
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $23 +$27 +114%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 18 $24 +$26 +109%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $0 +$1 +125%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
ITF Sapporo: Mutsumi Uemura vs Yuhan Liu Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$26 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $7 +$8 +129%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $12 +$10 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$14 +93%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Krumich vs. Silva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariia Masiianskaia vs Nancy Lee Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
ITF Bolszewo: Marcelina Podlinska vs Daria Gorska Jun 17 $21 +$29 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $0 $0 -2%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $46 +$4 +8%
ITF Kayseri: Bogdan Seleznev vs Cem Christopher Kucukhuseyin Jun 17 $24 +$26 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $53 −$3 -6%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 50¢ $25 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 49¢ $3 1h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 43¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $17 6h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 47¢ $20 8h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 44¢ $0 8h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $3 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $24 10h
ITF Sapporo: Mutsumi Uemura vs Yuhan Liu BUY Yuhan Liu 49¢ $25 11h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 11h
ITF Klosters: Noah Karma vs Justin Schlageter BUY Noah Karma 51¢ $11 13h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 13h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $27 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $27 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $27 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $12 15h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $7 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $27 16h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $4 16h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 48¢ $25 17h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 48¢ $25 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $4 19h
ITF Bolszewo: Marcelina Podlinska vs Daria Gorska BUY Marcelina Podlinska 42¢ $21 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $15 19h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 51¢ $9 20h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Felix Balshaw 54¢ $27 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 47¢ $24 21h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 44¢ $22 21h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 51¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.27 · official $287.27 · 2453 history records