Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc38…9750 other 12 markets active 18h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$589 (+7%) realized +$589 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$672per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days+$211
14 days+$211
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$1
sports 18% +$526
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.1% -39.5% 36% 36% -6.8%
≤30d 11 -33.1% -39.5% 36% 36% -6.8%
≤90d 11 -33.1% -39.5% 36% 36% -6.8%
all 12 -27.7% -34.6% 42% 42% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 42% -3.6%
10% -40.9% 25% -12.8%
15% -46.6% 8% -21.3%
20% -51.8% 0% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$88 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage143d
Avg bet$672
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$7 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $474 +$212 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $874 −$460 -53%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $101 +$18 +18%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $109 −$106 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,124 +$572 +11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $34 −$2 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $1,000 +$314 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $195 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $622 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $405 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $415 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $874 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 88¢ $118 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 22¢ $109 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $5,697 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $5,124 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $64 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $32 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $125 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $69 4d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 100¢ $1,314 143d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 76¢ $1,000 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records