Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdc37…bac6 sports 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,220 (-4%) realized −$3,116 · open −$104
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%101W / 73L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$626est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$151
other 27% −$2,977
crypto 2% −$518
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 174 -6.0% -14.9% 58% 58% -13.8%
all 174 -6.0% -14.9% 58% 58% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 58% -13.8%
10% -23.1% 52% -22.1%
15% -30.5% 42% -29.6%
20% -37.3% 30% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$627) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$396 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$3,116
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses101 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$626
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage78d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ $127 $23 −$104 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $129 −$129 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 03 $578 −$550 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 03 $300 +$280 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 03 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 03 $144 −$140 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 03 $126 +$17 +14%
Will Rio Ave FC vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw? May 03 $126 −$124 -98%
Rio Ave FC vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $141 −$141 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox May 03 $359 −$354 -99%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5 May 03 $236 +$148 +63%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $142 +$75 +53%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 May 03 $829 −$829 -100%
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh May 03 $718 +$135 +19%
Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $548 +$175 +32%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 03 $346 +$194 +56%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $16 +$6 +35%
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 03 $237 +$100 +42%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 May 03 $122 +$118 +97%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $117 −$117 -100%
PEC Zwolle vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 1.5 May 03 $217 −$217 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $123 +$95 +77%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $126 −$124 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 03 $122 −$122 -100%
FC Volendam vs. SC Heerenveen: Both Teams to Score May 03 $130 −$128 -99%
La Bisbal: Daria Kasatkina vs Tamara Korpatsch May 03 $128 −$126 -99%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $252 −$250 -99%
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5 May 03 $166 +$89 +53%
SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $879 +$325 +37%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to Score May 03 $1,044 +$755 +72%
Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Michael Mmoh May 02 $602 +$278 +46%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $312 +$287 +92%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $134 +$183 +137%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 02 $298 −$295 -99%
Will USL Dunkerque vs. Grenoble Foot 38 end in a draw? May 02 $122 +$178 +145%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $124 −$122 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $250 −$245 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5 May 02 $63 +$20 +32%
FC Arouca vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 2.5 May 02 $133 +$95 +71%
Will Falkirk FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $247 −$245 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5 May 02 $186 +$61 +33%
FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5 May 02 $127 +$68 +54%
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $179 −$178 -99%
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5 May 02 $132 +$52 +39%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $118 −$117 -100%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score May 02 $113 −$112 -100%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1,940 −$1,920 -99%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1,300 +$728 +56%
PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Spartak Moskva: O/U 2.5 May 01 $654 +$652 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $129 1h
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY No 14¢ $20 34d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY No 14¢ $18 34d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY No 14¢ $8 34d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY No 14¢ $7 34d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY No 14¢ $15 34d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY No 14¢ $60 34d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 10¢ $130 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $322 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $256 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $581 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $300 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $130 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $144 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $143 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $126 55d
Will Rio Ave FC vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw? BUY No 27¢ $126 55d
Rio Ave FC vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $141 55d
Rio Ave FC vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $0 55d
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $359 55d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $384 55d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $236 55d
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $218 55d
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $142 55d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $12 55d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 55d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 55d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 55d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $16 55d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.35 · official $23.35 (match) · 648 history records