Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdc36…8542
other · 128 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$876 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,608 · open −$48
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$194
Realized−$1,608
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 107
Open positions4
Markets (closed)124 / 128
History coverage37d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%
Chart Positions 4 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$102
14 days−$1,240
30 days−$1,294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $194 $157 −$37 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $33 $27 −$6 (-20%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? No 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $319 $0 −$319 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $79 +$302 +385%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $235 −$233 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $18 −$17 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$9 +125%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $208 +$203 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $181 −$176 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +101%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $283 +$112 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $154 −$149 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $14 −$13 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $513 +$321 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $430 −$13 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $60 −$21 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $556 −$5 -1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $23 −$17 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $121 −$116 -95%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $331 −$319 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $103 +$90 +88%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 06 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 05 $7 −$6 -84%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 05 $5 −$3 -49%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $22 −$21 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $144 −$139 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $112 −$7 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $81 −$78 -96%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $40 −$38 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $157 −$150 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 92% −$1,047
crypto 3% −$268
politics 2% −$167
world 2% −$175
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $126 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $353 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $34 16h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 23h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 32h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 32h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 32h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 32h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $32 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $123 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-69.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -45.8% -51.0% 22% 22% -13.3%
≤30d 118 -64.4% -67.8% 14% 14% -24.0%
≤90d 124 -66.1% -69.3% 14% 14% -27.5%
all 124 -66.1% -69.3% 14% 14% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.3% 14% -27.5%
10% -72.3% 14% -34.4%
15% -74.9% 14% -40.8%
20% -77.4% 13% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.95 · official $193.95 (match) · 492 history records