Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc31…da4d world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41 (-20%) realized −$37 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$38
sports 33% −$5
crypto 17% +$3
other 3% −$1
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -50.9% -55.6% 0% 0% -38.4%
≤30d 6 -50.9% -55.6% 0% 0% -38.4%
≤90d 27 -26.5% -33.5% 41% 37% -45.9%
all 47 -14.4% -22.6% 49% 40% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 40% -27.6%
10% -30.0% 30% -34.6%
15% -36.7% 17% -40.9%
20% -42.9% 13% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)47 / 53
History coverage131d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-60%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $1 $0 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $1 +$1 +75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 +40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 10 $1 $0 +12%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Peshawar Zalmi Apr 09 $1 +$1 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 08 $2 $0 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $1 +$2 +214%
Pakistan Super League: Multan Sultans vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Apr 06 $7 +$2 +32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Karachi Kings Apr 02 $4 +$3 +72%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $5 +$1 +24%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $1 +$4 +333%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs Canada (Game 1) Feb 20 $1 $0 +14%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 19 $5 $0 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $4 +$2 +58%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 19 $1 $0 +6%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 19 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 17 $2 +$1 +24%
T20 World Cup: Ireland vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 17 $1 $0 -18%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 15 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs South Africa (Game 1) Feb 14 $10 −$5 -50%
T20 World Cup: England vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 14 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 10 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 10 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 10 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 05 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 05 $2 −$1 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 48m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $1 39d
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL Yes $0 50d
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes $0 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 59d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 59d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $2 59d
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes $1 59d
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 59d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $1 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.54 · official $4.54 (match) · 135 history records