Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc31…2cd9 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$605 (+6%) realized +$605 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$633
7 days+$734
14 days+$830
30 days+$830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$233
crypto 31% +$616
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -11.3% -19.7% 38% 31% +19.9%
≤30d 28 -4.8% -13.8% 54% 50% +17.8%
≤90d 46 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 46% -2.2%
all 46 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 46% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 46% -2.2%
10% -26.1% 43% -11.5%
15% -33.3% 17% -20.1%
20% -39.8% 13% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$60 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$605
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage52d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $105 +$124 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $211 +$698 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $418 +$632 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $195 +$102 +52%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 +$55 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $110 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $917 −$67 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,027 −$100 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,025 −$67 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,027 −$53 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,025 +$45 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,028 +$309 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 23 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 22 $33 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 22 $71 +$34 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 22 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 22 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $155 +$45 +29%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $942 −$29 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $229 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1,050 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $418 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $195 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $39 12d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $16 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $13 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records