Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc31…3fe8 other 541 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (198 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$646 (-7%) realized −$628 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate47%238W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day197.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$829
14 days−$449
30 days−$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$47
weather 28% −$216
world 14% −$46
sports 14% −$6
politics 9% −$100
tech 3% −$26
culture 1% −$22
crypto 0% −$7
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (198 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 340 -34.7% -40.9% 31% 16% -21.3%
≤30d 510 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 28% -14.4%
≤90d 510 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 28% -14.4%
all 510 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 28% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover197.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 28% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 20% -22.6%
15% -28.4% 15% -30.1%
20% -35.4% 13% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$628
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses238 / 272
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions31
Markets (closed)510 / 541
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day197.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? No 72¢ 70¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 94¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+41%)
FDA approves Unicycive's Oxylanthanum carbonate? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-3%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 94¢ 97¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 96¢ 92¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 98¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 96¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30? No 58¢ 58¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 20¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 57¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-29%)
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 85¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by June 30? No 62¢ 46¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-27%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 64¢ 81¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? No 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Yes 71¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 68¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? Yes 64¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Atmosphere" during the Jordan vs Argentina FI Jun 27 $9 −$3 -36%
Will there be 3+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $9 +$3 +28%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists Jun 27 $4 +$1 +12%
Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists Jun 27 $4 +$1 +12%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists Jun 27 $4 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Borja Iglesias: 1+ goals Jun 27 $4 +$1 +14%
Pedro Porro: 1+ assists Jun 27 $5 $0 +9%
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists Jun 27 $5 $0 +9%
Nico Williams: 1+ assists Jun 27 $5 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? Jun 27 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Colombia vs Portug Jun 26 $17 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2 Jun 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Jun 26 $42 +$20 +48%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Jun 26 $4 +$1 +14%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $27 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Egil Selvik: 4+ saves Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Jun 26 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? Jun 26 $43 −$15 -36%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 26 $266 −$18 -7%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots Jun 26 $40 −$40 -98%
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? Jun 26 $53 −$6 -12%
Will Chase Reid be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Trump signs housing bill by end of July? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -10%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 26 $67 +$15 +23%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 26 $50 +$16 +31%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl Jun 26 $9 $0 -5%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026? Jun 26 $45 −$9 -20%
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals Jun 26 $24 +$3 +12%
Deniz Undav: 4+ shots Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Deniz Undav: 1+ assists Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Deniz Undav: 2+ assists Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals Jun 25 $34 +$9 +26%
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? Jun 25 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? Jun 25 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $7 18m
Will the announcers say "Atmosphere" during the Jordan vs Argentina FI SELL No 29¢ $6 18m
Will there be 3+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 1¢ $0 18m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 41m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $32 1h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 1h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 1h
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 3h
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3h
Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists BUY No 89¢ $4 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $4 3h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 3h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 3h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 4h
Will there be 3+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 50¢ $10 4h
Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists BUY No 89¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists BUY No 89¢ $4 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $3 4h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5h
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 5h
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 5h
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.85 · official $297.03 (match) · 3500 history records