Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdc31…6be8 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$9
other 18% +$1
finance 9% −$3
politics 8% $0
crypto 7% +$2
sports 3% +$10
tech 3% +$1
culture 3% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +3.6% -6.2% 56% 33% -7.9%
≤90d 10 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 30% -8.0%
all 35 +5.1% -4.9% 49% 17% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 17% -7.1%
10% -14.0% 6% -16.0%
15% -22.3% 6% -24.1%
20% -29.9% 6% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.07 per $1 lost it wins $6.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage485d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $48 +$7 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $13 +$2 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $69 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $8 +$1 +11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $3 $0 -5%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 10 $1 $0 +19%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 06 $1 $0 -45%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $18 +$1 +6%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 28 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. military implement transgender ban? Mar 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on February 2 Feb 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Miami (FL) vs. Florida State Feb 20 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $7 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $1 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $24 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $6 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $5 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $22 27h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $3 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $14 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $13 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $52 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $48 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.78 · official $49.78 (match) · 119 history records