Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:55:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc30…83b5 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$3
other 41% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.6% -30.9% 38% 38% -10.1%
≤30d 8 -23.6% -30.9% 38% 38% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -23.6% -30.9% 38% 38% -10.1%
all 8 -23.6% -30.9% 38% 38% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 38% -10.1%
10% -37.5% 38% -18.7%
15% -43.6% 38% -26.5%
20% -49.1% 38% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$23 +76%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $24 −$24 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$35 +172%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $53 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $30 27h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $10 27h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $24 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 4¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.90 · official $52.90 (match) · 12 history records