Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc2f…2b01 world 69 markets active 7h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$2
other 20% −$3
politics 15% −$1
sports 15% −$9
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 12% -9.9%
≤30d 28 +2.5% -7.3% 46% 11% -9.5%
≤90d 68 -0.8% -10.2% 35% 4% -9.6%
all 69 -2.2% -11.5% 35% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -9.9%
10% -20.0% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage521d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $64 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $59 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $78 −$3 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 +$1 +13%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $41 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $39 −$2 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $118 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $45 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $44 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $3 +$1 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $15 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $37 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $102 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $71 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $81 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $37 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $37 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $40 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $40 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $11 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $40 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $40 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $41 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 297 history records