Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc2b…daf3 other 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$7
politics 22% −$2
economics 6% $0
sports 4% −$21
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -3.4% -12.6% 8% 7% -9.7%
all 105 -3.4% -12.6% 8% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 7% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 7% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 7% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 97
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage84d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $175 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $167 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $166 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $137 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $88 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $148 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $83 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $169 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 20 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 3m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $17 20h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $17 22h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $17 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 16d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $11 18d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $33 28d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 29d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.93 · official $45.93 (match) · 277 history records