Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdc2b…cec3 sports 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,803 (+32%) realized +$1,825 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 30L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$610
14 days+$1,301
30 days+$1,857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,765
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.5% -2.7% 45% 45% +29.9%
≤30d 46 +20.4% +8.9% 54% 54% +23.2%
≤90d 63 +25.5% +13.6% 56% 54% +19.9%
all 66 +24.3% +12.5% 55% 53% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 53% +19.7%
10% +1.7% 48% +8.3%
15% -8.1% 45% -2.2%
20% -17.1% 41% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$59 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$1,825
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 30
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage94d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Rooster 46¢ 50¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 12¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $462 +$86 +19%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $152 +$137 +90%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 17 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $80 +$310 +388%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$131 +65%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $66 −$65 -98%
Map Handicap: MZP (-1.5) vs Atputies (+1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) Jun 11 $203 +$247 +121%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $203 +$168 +83%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $102 +$19 +19%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $92 −$91 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $33 +$181 +550%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 08 $60 −$59 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $250 +$335 +134%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $92 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $200 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 06 $99 +$87 +88%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs INFURITY Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $250 +$243 +97%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $200 −$197 -99%
Map Handicap: ENCE (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) Jun 04 $200 +$297 +149%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $200 +$172 +86%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $200 +$104 +52%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $200 +$194 +97%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs LPH Gaming (+1.5) Jun 02 $80 +$121 +152%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $52 +$45 +86%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $122 −$120 -98%
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs 25 cents (+1.5) May 27 $14 −$14 -97%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 26 $86 +$102 +118%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $189 −$186 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner May 26 $70 −$68 -98%
Map Handicap: SAW (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) May 25 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner May 24 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Kinoa (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 24 $71 +$81 +114%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $71 +$84 +119%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage May 24 $79 +$63 +79%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Q May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europ May 22 $99 +$32 +33%
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner May 21 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 May 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game May 21 $41 +$62 +152%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs May 19 $47 +$24 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs JiJieHao (+1.5) May 13 $42 +$19 +46%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 07 $2 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Benched gods vs m1x (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Ser May 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 46¢ $102 1m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 88¢ $548 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 74¢ $462 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 12¢ $31 1h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 45¢ $97 20h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 35¢ $82 24h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 52¢ $152 25h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Ilbirs eSports 20¢ $80 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 30¢ $36 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 41¢ $66 4d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 60¢ $202 4d
Map Handicap: MZP (-1.5) vs Atputies (+1.5) BUY Atputies $16 5d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY UNiTY esports 17¢ $10 6d
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) BUY ex-MANA eSports 44¢ $203 6d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner SELL Fluxo W7M 59¢ $121 7d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 48¢ $102 7d
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) BUY G2 Ares 54¢ $203 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino $2 7d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Level UP 41¢ $3 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 48¢ $87 8d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 40¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 - Map 2 Winner BUY L.820 15¢ $33 8d
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) BUY HyperSpirit 35¢ $60 9d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 52¢ $92 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 42¢ $250 10d
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-Zero Tenacity 66¢ $200 11d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers BUY RED Canids Academy 53¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers BUY RED Canids Academy 53¢ $11 12d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers BUY RED Canids Academy 53¢ $24 12d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers BUY RED Canids Academy 53¢ $21 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.73 · official $118.60 · 131 history records