Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc2a…e466 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$204 (+2%) realized +$215 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$322
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$134
sports 31% −$56
finance 14% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤30d 20 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% -5.7%
≤90d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 50% -5.0%
all 36 -2.0% -11.3% 53% 47% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 47% -7.8%
10% -19.8% 44% -16.7%
15% -27.5% 36% -24.7%
20% -34.7% 25% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$83 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$559
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 52
History coverage240d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 58¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 60¢ $170 $169 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $149 +$101 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $142 +$68 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $62 +$58 +93%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $79 +$79 +99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 15 $132 +$43 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $118 +$42 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $125 −$124 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $141 +$59 +42%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $43 +$117 +276%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $261 +$65 +25%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 13 $127 −$126 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $112 −$111 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $66 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $183 +$142 +78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $199 −$17 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 25 $1,480 +$81 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 28 $10 +$11 +105%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 11 $3,000 +$46 +2%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 05 $300 −$207 -69%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 05 $1,000 −$200 -20%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Jan 14 $200 +$67 +34%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 20 $20 +$45 +224%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? Nov 20 $200 +$76 +38%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Nov 20 $299 +$65 +22%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 20 $400 +$230 +57%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $200 −$110 -55%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $199 +$196 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 37¢ $112 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 22¢ $41 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 36¢ $112 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 37¢ $112 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $172 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $202 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $203 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $120 17h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 17h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $62 17h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $25 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 18h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread BUY 25¢ $31 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $42 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 75¢ $76 41h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $55 41h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 42h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 42h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $7 42h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread BUY 12¢ $8 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread BUY 34¢ $12 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 58¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 43¢ $25 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 44¢ $36 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $125 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $149 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will BUY 15¢ $31 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $82 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Will Brazil BUY $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.66 · official $928.66 · 91 history records