Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc28…9ec9 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$223 (-2%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$58
politics 27% −$5
world 21% −$2
tech 19% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 2% −$160
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 21 -4.9% -13.9% 24% 10% -11.6%
all 50 -2.0% -11.3% 34% 4% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -11.3%
10% -19.8% 4% -19.8%
15% -27.6% 2% -27.5%
20% -34.7% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage402d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30? May 26 $48 $0 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Emma Navarro vs Janice Tjen May 26 $29 +$10 +35%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $668 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? May 22 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? May 22 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 May 11-17? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? May 15 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $658 −$1 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 11 $62 −$62 -99%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $900 −$1 -0%
LoL: LOS vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 09 $171 −$170 -99%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 09 $900 $0 +0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli May 09 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 29 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Apr 29 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31? Apr 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be less than $45M at market close on Apr 17 $12 +$8 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in April 2026? Mar 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 19? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 10? Jan 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 7? Jan 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 15-21? Jan 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,200 on November 6? Dec 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on November 6? Dec 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Justin Young win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Nov 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 15-21? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kateřina Konečná be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Oct 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Union Berlin win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Aug 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Jul 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 28 $216 $0 -0%
Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? May 28 $205 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 28 $220 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 20 $222 $0 -0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 20 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 1h
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $48 31d
Roland Garros WTA: Emma Navarro vs Janice Tjen BUY Emma Navarro 74¢ $29 31d
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $48 31d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? SELL Yes $1 34d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? SELL No 100¢ $638 34d
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 34d
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $629 34d
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $662 34d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $656 41d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? SELL Yes $1 41d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $402 41d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $329 41d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $255 41d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $329 41d
Will Solana dip to $70 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $7 41d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $658 41d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? SELL No 100¢ $674 41d
Will Solana dip to $70 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $7 41d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY No 65¢ $62 45d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 47d
LoL: LOS vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY LOS 69¢ $171 47d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $897 47d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL Yes $1 47d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $863 47d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL Yes $7 58d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $827 58d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 58d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 58d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.55 · official $84.55 (match) · 124 history records