Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc22…a6df crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-4%) realized −$34 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$106
other 4% +$19
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 36% -6.6%
≤30d 39 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 36% -6.6%
≤90d 39 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 36% -6.6%
all 49 -13.3% -21.5% 43% 35% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 35% -19.2%
10% -29.0% 29% -26.9%
15% -35.9% 29% -34.0%
20% -42.2% 24% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage118d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 50¢ 66¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -94%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$17 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$11 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$32 +100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$19 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 18 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 18 $55 −$24 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11AM ET Feb 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 18 $7 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 18 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 18 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 18 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 18 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $60 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $12 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.15 · official $6.15 (match) · 184 history records