Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc1e…6067 crypto 339 markets active 0h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,922 (+9%) realized +$11,056 · open −$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%203W / 127L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3,228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,504
7 days+$2,748
14 days+$2,748
30 days+$2,748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$7,963
other 13% +$1,152
sports 6% +$1,586
world 1% +$41
politics 0% −$145
tech 0% −$110
economics 0% −$81
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -27.2% -34.2% 37% 37% +6.2%
≤30d 27 -27.2% -34.2% 37% 37% +6.2%
≤90d 138 -8.2% -17.0% 69% 33% +2.8%
all 330 -5.0% -14.0% 62% 38% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 38% -1.1%
10% -22.3% 22% -10.6%
15% -29.8% 11% -19.2%
20% -36.7% 7% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$60 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$3,228
Realized+$11,056
Unrealized−$134
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses203 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions9
Markets (closed)330 / 339
History coverage579d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2,154 $2,137 −$17 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $590 $576 −$14 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $196 $192 −$4 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $98 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $97 $92 −$6 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $96 $2 −$94 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 −$43 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,624 +$550 +21%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,599 +$479 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 −$38 -90%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $772 +$554 +72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,135 +$257 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,573 +$784 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,110 +$663 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $375 −$323 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,309 +$1,172 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $709 −$618 -87%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $350 +$819 +234%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $472 −$381 -81%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $528 −$513 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $650 −$633 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $650 +$698 +107%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $350 −$301 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3PM ET Apr 07 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 07 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 07 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2PM ET Apr 07 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 06 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 06 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9AM ET Apr 06 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 05 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 05 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 05 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11AM ET Apr 05 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 05 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 05 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2AM ET Apr 05 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 05 $109 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,999 1m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $555 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 13m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $737 19m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $300 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,500 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 15h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $55 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $200 16h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 16h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $37 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,000 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,499 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,499 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $42 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,000 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,228.19 · official $3,228.19 (match) · 1043 history records