trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Clippers vs. Nuggets | Clippers | 66¢ | 0¢ | $18 | $0 | −$18 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | Jun 12 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 13-19? | May 26 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Apr 16 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Mar 31 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Heat vs. 76ers | Feb 27 | $6 | +$4 | +82% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Feb 05 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 05 | $771 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 05 | $353 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Feb 05 | $383 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 04 | $386 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 04 | $350 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 04 | $725 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 03 | $359 | $0 | -0% |
| Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 03 | $372 | $0 | -0% |
| Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 02 | $318 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 02 | $351 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 02 | $301 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 31 | $396 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 31 | $329 | $0 | -0% |
| Clippers vs. Nuggets | Jan 30 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 75% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 20 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 20% | 5% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 5% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 5% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 5% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 5% | -33.6% |