Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

DC 0xdc1b…3ff7 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$226 (-17%) realized −$176 · open −$50

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip

Net edge-79%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$327per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-78.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-76.4%	-78.7%	0%	0%	-41.6%
≤30d	3	-76.4%	-78.7%	0%	0%	-41.6%
≤90d	3	-76.4%	-78.7%	0%	0%	-41.6%
all	3	-76.4%	-78.7%	0%	0%	-41.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-78.7%	0%	-41.6%
10%	-80.7%	0%	-47.2%
15%	-82.6%	0%	-52.3%
20%	-84.3%	0%	-57.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -35% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -76% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$93 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$450

Realized−$176

Unrealized−$50

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage6d

Avg bet$327

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$500	$450	−$50 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$721	−$211	-29%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game?	Jun 14	$16	−$15	-97%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	Jun 14	$55	−$53	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$515	1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$509	1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$721	6d
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game?	BUY Yes	8¢	$16	6d
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	BUY Yes	2¢	$22	6d
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	6d
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	BUY Yes	1¢	$6	6d
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.00 · official $450.00 (match) · 14 history records