Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdc19…0b8a crypto 280 markets active 0h ago coverage 688d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,164 (-39%) realized −$8,049 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%101W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$501
7 days−$501
14 days−$501
30 days−$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$773
politics 37% −$6,963
other 3% −$274
tech 1% −$151
world 0% −$22
sports 0% −$47
economics 0% +$3
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -31.8% -38.3% 37% 30% -24.8%
≤30d 30 -31.8% -38.3% 37% 30% -24.8%
≤90d 30 -31.8% -38.3% 37% 30% -24.8%
all 271 -22.2% -29.6% 37% 35% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 35% -45.3%
10% -36.4% 32% -50.5%
15% -42.5% 28% -55.3%
20% -48.2% 25% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$82 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

688d coverage
Net worth$443
Realized−$8,049
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses101 / 170
Open positions9
Markets (closed)271 / 280
History coverage688d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $250 $216 −$34 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 49¢ 51¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 46¢ $75 $49 −$26 (-35%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $100 $42 −$58 (-58%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Yes 76¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $109 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $110 −$101 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $207 +$96 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $210 +$270 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $224 −$215 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $210 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $106 +$182 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $132 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$10 +36%
BitBoy convicted? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $370 −$370 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$118 +114%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 06 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$13 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 06 $220 +$34 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 06 $80 +$125 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 06 $200 +$337 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 06 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $48 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $116 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $110 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $90 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $290 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $15 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $216 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.05 · official $435.91 · 904 history records