Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc16…ef14 weather 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-13%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$115
weather 31% −$58
sports 23% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +37.4% +24.3% 33% 33% +42.3%
≤30d 15 -26.1% -33.1% 20% 20% -22.5%
≤90d 15 -26.1% -33.1% 20% 20% -22.5%
all 15 -26.1% -33.1% 20% 20% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 20% -22.5%
10% -39.5% 20% -29.9%
15% -45.3% 20% -36.7%
20% -50.7% 20% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$16 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage21d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$77 +260%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$28 -57%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 +$55 +234%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $64 −$63 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on May May 30 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 30 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma May 30 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 27 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 27 $10 +$19 +185%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $107 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $48 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 27h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $64 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on May BUY Yes $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma BUY Yes $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma BUY Yes $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma BUY Yes 17¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma BUY Yes $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes $21 19d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma BUY Yes 34¢ $10 21d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma BUY Yes 10¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records