Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc10…84ac other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$22
politics 26% −$69
sports 17% −$4
crypto 11% −$6
world 6% −$8
economics 4% −$3
culture 4% +$1
finance 3% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 110 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.1%
all 123 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 108
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage102d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $142 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $128 −$1 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $64 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $288 −$3 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $109 −$2 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $61 −$1 -1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $18 $0 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $57 $0 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $51 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $20 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $222 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $54 −$5 -9%
Will Jon Stewart be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $9 $0 -4%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $49 −$4 -8%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $443 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $511 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $114 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $54 2h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $55 6h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 6h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 11h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 12h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 16h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $58 16h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $58 24h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 25h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 31h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 32h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 36h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 36h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 42h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 42h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $51 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $42 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 505 history records