Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc10…cd9a sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,425 (-61%) realized −$1,428 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,431
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.7% -30.1% 43% 43% -33.0%
≤30d 28 +0.8% -8.8% 54% 54% -9.1%
≤90d 34 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 47% -66.3%
all 34 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 47% -66.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 47% -66.3%
10% -27.2% 47% -69.5%
15% -34.3% 44% -72.4%
20% -40.7% 35% -75.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$103 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$1,428
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage82d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Under 69¢ 87¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $9 −$8 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $7 +$7 +104%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $9 +$5 +65%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $8 +$5 +72%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $5 −$4 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 06 $4 +$6 +124%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 04 $8 +$6 +72%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 03 $8 +$3 +34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 01 $10 +$4 +40%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 30 $9 −$8 -99%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $7 +$7 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 29 $6 +$8 +144%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $13 +$6 +42%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 25 $6 +$8 +117%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 24 $6 +$8 +122%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 21 $4 +$5 +138%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 21 $4 +$5 +117%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5 Mar 29 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5 Mar 28 $697 −$697 -100%
Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 248.5 Mar 28 $328 +$328 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 69¢ $6 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 60¢ $9 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $8 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $7 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $1 4d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 60¢ $3 4d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 60¢ $5 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 60¢ $9 5d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 58¢ $6 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 58¢ $2 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $7 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 9d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 32¢ $3 9d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $7 11d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 58¢ $6 13d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 74¢ $8 14d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 16d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 60¢ $9 17d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $5 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 51¢ $7 20d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Thunder 70¢ $13 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.02 · official $64.02 (match) · 107 history records