Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DC 0xdc0e…93ab other 4 markets active 19d ago coverage 494d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$203 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,778per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 494d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 74% +$563
other 19% −$153
tech 7% −$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +5.1% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤90d 1 +5.1% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
all 2 -35.0% -41.2% 50% 0% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.2% 0% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -46.8% 0% -16.3%
15% -52.0% 0% -24.4%
20% -56.7% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$563 vs −$301 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$2,711
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage494d
Avg bet$3,778
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,714 $1,402 −$311 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,150 $1,309 +$158 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $11,137 +$563 +5%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 21 $1,037 −$301 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $621 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,756 18d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $501 29d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $59 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 95¢ $11,137 47d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $21 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $0 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $0 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $30 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $2 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $58 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $0 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $112 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $1 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $16 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $1 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $1 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $12 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $5 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $10 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $30 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $436 512d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 0¢ $1,037 512d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,711.01 · official $2,711.01 (match) · 53 history records