Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdc0c…218a sports 515 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,879 (+4%) realized +$8,051 · open −$172
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%238W / 267L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$3,361est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6,727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,097
7 days−$4,826
14 days−$4,882
30 days+$11,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$7,505
other 6% −$2,558
crypto 0% +$269
world 0% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -3.8% -13.0% 46% 45% -18.6%
≤30d 206 +13.1% +2.3% 48% 46% -0.1%
≤90d 351 +3.9% -6.0% 45% 44% -4.0%
all 505 +0.1% -9.5% 47% 46% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 46% -6.7%
10% -18.1% 45% -15.6%
15% -26.0% 43% -23.8%
20% -33.3% 39% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$353 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$6,727
Realized+$8,051
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses238 / 267
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,361
Open positions10
Markets (closed)505 / 515
History coverage189d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,115 $1,229 +$114 (+10%)
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Vekic 38¢ 36¢ $1,177 $1,116 −$61 (-5%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 55¢ 52¢ $819 $772 −$46 (-6%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 55¢ 52¢ $768 $735 −$33 (-4%)
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ 56¢ $693 $678 −$15 (-2%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 41¢ 42¢ $619 $638 +$20 (+3%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 28¢ 22¢ $699 $540 −$158 (-23%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Facundo Acosta 63¢ 64¢ $504 $508 +$4 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ 54¢ $460 $464 +$4 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 58¢ 58¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $676 +$524 +78%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1,116 −$146 -13%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $1,526 −$1,510 -99%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $574 −$569 -99%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $416 +$295 +71%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $1,014 +$646 +64%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $511 +$553 +108%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $410 −$400 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $557 −$550 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $447 +$553 +124%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $933 −$927 -99%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $173 −$48 -28%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $660 −$188 -28%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $277 −$270 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $781 −$770 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $819 −$156 -19%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $854 −$847 -99%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $269 −$264 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $486 −$480 -99%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $674 +$475 +70%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 15 $584 −$576 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $487 +$451 +92%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $410 +$213 +52%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $397 −$392 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $508 +$581 +114%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $452 +$687 +152%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $131 +$18 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $485 +$269 +55%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $565 +$435 +77%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $535 +$665 +124%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $446 +$254 +57%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $476 −$470 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $477 +$523 +109%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $377 +$368 +98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $390 +$328 +84%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $380 −$377 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $426 −$424 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $401 −$395 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $334 +$366 +109%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $750 +$1,021 +136%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $751 −$740 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $2,487 −$2,455 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $417 +$583 +140%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $414 +$310 +75%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $486 +$183 +38%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $414 −$405 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $841 −$830 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $318 +$652 +205%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $6 8m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $11 28m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $21 28m
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 58¢ $4 52m
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 58¢ $41 55m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $3 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $13 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $5 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 57¢ $173 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $60 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $26 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $3 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $298 1h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 52¢ $211 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $177 10h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $63 10h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $9 10h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $1 10h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 56¢ $72 10h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 56¢ $3 10h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 56¢ $8 10h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 56¢ $29 11h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 56¢ $94 11h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $69 11h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $28 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,726.52 · official $6,726.64 (match) · 2335 history records