Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc0c…31ff sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$810 (-26%) realized −$809 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%38W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$693
14 days−$948
30 days−$942
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$1,436
sports 38% +$600
politics 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -32.2% -38.7% 30% 30% -61.7%
≤90d 15 -21.5% -29.0% 40% 40% -59.1%
all 76 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 50% -35.4%
10% -19.7% 50% -41.6%
15% -27.5% 47% -47.2%
20% -34.6% 42% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$50 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$809
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses38 / 38
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage564d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $197 $195 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $268 −$267 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $253 −$249 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $181 −$177 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$198 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $215 −$210 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $240 −$237 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $188 +$470 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $89 −$88 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $9 +$7 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 06 $12 +$6 +46%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $19 −$19 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? May 02 $24 +$13 +52%
Wild vs. Red Wings Apr 15 $8 +$6 +79%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 30 $18 −$18 -99%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats Mar 30 $21 +$15 +69%
Grizzlies vs. Bulls Mar 20 $15 +$6 +43%
Utah vs. Wild Mar 16 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Canadiens vs. Wild Feb 03 $22 +$17 +79%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 03 $63 −$31 -50%
49ers vs. Seahawks Feb 02 $27 +$10 +39%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 10 $67 −$67 -100%
Flames vs. Sharks Jan 10 $29 +$37 +127%
Rays vs. Orioles Dec 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas vs. Ohio State Dec 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Greece win on 2025-09-08? Dec 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Dec 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Kraken vs. Utah Dec 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Rangers vs. Senators Dec 12 $61 +$82 +133%
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Dec 04 $55 +$68 +122%
Trail Blazers vs. Bucks Nov 29 $46 +$55 +117%
Arizona vs. Cincinnati Nov 24 $30 +$62 +203%
Canucks vs. Predators Nov 15 $27 +$27 +100%
Canucks vs. Capitals Oct 30 $14 +$21 +144%
Titans vs. Raiders Oct 19 $16 +$9 +54%
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Oct 12 $12 +$21 +178%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? Oct 06 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17? Sep 23 $10 +$7 +75%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? Sep 17 $14 +$5 +33%
Dodgers vs. Angels Aug 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Mets vs. Nationals Aug 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Marlins vs. Braves Aug 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Mariners vs. Angels Aug 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Pirates vs. Cardinals Aug 30 $8 +$7 +89%
Phillies vs. White Sox Aug 07 $16 +$10 +61%
Magic vs. Nets Jul 24 $9 +$7 +82%
Mariners vs. Yankees Jul 16 $12 +$8 +70%
Marlins vs. Giants Jul 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $198 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $268 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $253 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $181 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $203 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $215 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $240 9d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $188 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $89 12d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $9 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $12 34d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 72¢ $19 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 68d
Wild vs. Red Wings BUY Wild 56¢ $8 77d
76ers vs. Heat BUY 76ers 55¢ $18 84d
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats BUY Kentucky Wildcats 59¢ $21 94d
Grizzlies vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 70¢ $15 98d
Utah vs. Wild BUY Wild 60¢ $9 103d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 114d
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-02-16? BUY No 59¢ $16 125d
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers BUY Grizzlies 29¢ $24 135d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $31 139d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $63 140d
Canadiens vs. Wild BUY Wild 56¢ $22 140d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 72¢ $27 155d
Clippers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 60¢ $67 162d
Flames vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 44¢ $29 187d
Kraken vs. Utah BUY Kraken 37¢ $28 191d
Rangers vs. Senators BUY Rangers 43¢ $61 200d
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State BUY Jacksonville State 45¢ $55 205d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.07 · official $195.07 (match) · 142 history records