Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc09…f009 crypto 647 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,142 (+1%) realized +$7,137 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%589W / 57L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,345per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +0.6% -9.0% 91% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 254 -0.9% -10.3% 90% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 609 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 0% -9.7%
all 646 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,698) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$219 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$1,014
Realized+$7,137
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses589 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)646 / 647
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$1,345
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 646 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $1,009 $1,014 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,018 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $991 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $986 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1,003 +$30 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $964 −$236 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1,001 −$55 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $999 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $981 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $981 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $951 −$219 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$65 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $999 +$96 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1,001 −$12 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,003 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $998 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1,000 +$27 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,000 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $981 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $993 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $990 +$31 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $998 +$54 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1,012 +$29 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1,020 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $998 +$32 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $979 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $972 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $952 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $917 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $253 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $672 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $899 −$51 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $901 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1,000 −$222 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $1,006 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $991 +$30 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $173 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $746 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $892 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $875 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $646 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,013.90 · official $1,016.45 (match) · 3500 history records