Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc05…f29f tech 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$28
tech 16% +$38
other 12% −$1
crypto 8% −$2
sports 6% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 18 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 33 +2.6% -7.2% 33% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 3% -26.0%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$594) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage203d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $108 +$3 +3%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $951 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 12 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $955 −$2 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $977 −$20 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $585 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $586 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $594 −$8 -1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 08 $700 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 08 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $109 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $108 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $213 +$2 +1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $103 +$4 +4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 18 $415 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 17 $98 +$7 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $48 +$27 +56%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 30 $44 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $107 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $109 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $106 26h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $106 41h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $108 28d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $947 35d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $948 36d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $950 36d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $951 36d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $949 36d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $951 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $953 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $954 36d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $954 36d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $955 36d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $953 36d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $954 36d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $957 36d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 76¢ $977 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 100¢ $110 47d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $110 60d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $584 69d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $584 70d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $584 70d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $585 70d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $585 70d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $585 70d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $585 70d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $586 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.44 · official $106.44 (match) · 80 history records