Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DB 0xdbff…136e politics 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-38%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$6
world 36% +$1
crypto 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-56.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -28.6% -35.4% 50% 50% -40.2%
≤90d 3 -52.4% -56.9% 33% 33% -58.4%
all 3 -52.4% -56.9% 33% 33% -58.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.9% 33% -58.4%
10% -61.0% 33% -62.4%
15% -64.8% 33% -66.0%
20% -68.3% 0% -69.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage63d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 63¢ 67¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 48¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $3 16d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 65¢ $3 23d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 63¢ $3 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $3 51d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament BUY No 53¢ $3 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.75 · official $5.75 (match) · 7 history records