Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbf6…17e7 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$808 (-46%) realized +$0 · open −$808
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$808
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$900
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$808
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1 / 12
History coverage15d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,200 $398 −$802 (-67%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $67 $55 −$13 (-19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $69 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 12d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $744 12d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $492 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $899.73 · official $899.73 (match) · 19 history records