Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DB 0xdbf4…7375 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+15%) realized +$49 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$9
crypto 10% −$17
sports 7% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 37% -1.9%
≤30d 19 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 37% -1.9%
≤90d 19 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 37% -1.9%
all 19 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 37% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 37% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 37% -11.3%
15% -25.7% 37% -19.8%
20% -33.0% 26% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)19 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 40¢ 74¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+84%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-68%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +57%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $30 +$12 +40%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -64%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $10 +$9 +89%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 25 $10 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $10 +$81 +786%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +65%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 34m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 42m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 44m
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL ECHO 100¢ $19 5h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea SELL Subtop De France 100¢ $19 6h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 52¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea BUY Subtop De France 52¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.87 · official $72.97 · 36 history records