Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbf4…fa72 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$2
other 20% −$1
politics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 14 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 0% -9.0%
all 36 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -8.9%
10% -19.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage472d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 −$3 -8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $47 +$4 +9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $90 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $82 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $42 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 09 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 03 $1 $0 -10%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 31 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 49.0% or higher on March 21? Mar 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will more than 300k jobs be added in February? Mar 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5? Mar 07 $16 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $50 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $50 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $11 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $10 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $51 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $47 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records