Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdbf3…94f0 weather 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$153 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate98%143W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$33
14 days+$56
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$63
sports 2% −$126
other 2% +$35
world 0% +$13
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 146 +5.4% -4.6% 98% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 146 +5.4% -4.6% 98% 3% -9.4%
all 146 +5.4% -4.6% 98% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 3% -9.4%
10% -13.7% 1% -18.1%
15% -22.1% 1% -26.0%
20% -29.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$589) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.73 per $1 lost it wins $12.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$5,523
Realized+$153
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses143 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)146 / 156
History coverage26d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,238 $1,239 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Sweden 93¢ 91¢ $1,200 $1,171 −$29 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,100 $1,135 +$35 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $495 $496 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $430 $430 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $390 $390 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $330 $330 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $320 $320 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 83¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $881 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $249 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,529 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $869 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $464 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $475 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,319 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $539 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,090 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $729 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $779 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $949 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $231 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $610 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $430 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $538 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $440 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,099 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $809 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $343 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $669 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $889 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $415 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $589 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $279 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,110 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $310 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 93¢ $1,202 7m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 11m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 83¢ $10 17m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 28m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 31m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $130 53m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $260 56m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $325 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $709 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $230 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $260 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $110 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $110 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $330 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $80 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $80 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $34 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $16 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,522.81 · official $5,522.81 (match) · 602 history records