Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

DB 0xdbf2…db43 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$325 (-16%) realized −$323 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$111per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+1.4%	-8.2%	44%	44%	-24.7%
≤30d	16	+1.4%	-8.2%	44%	44%	-24.7%
≤90d	16	+1.4%	-8.2%	44%	44%	-24.7%
all	16	+1.4%	-8.2%	44%	44%	-24.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.2%	44%	-24.7%
10%	-17.0%	44%	-31.9%
15%	-25.0%	44%	-38.5%
20%	-32.4%	44%	-44.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -5% → late +8% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$86 vs −$101 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$138

Realized−$323

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage5d

Avg bet$111

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	39¢	76¢	$50	$97	+$47 (+94%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Over	45¢	20¢	$89	$41	−$49 (-54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$49	+$42	+85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$167	−$164	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$112	−$110	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$158	+$120	+76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$163	−$5	-3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$76	+$87	+114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$225	−$149	-66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$57	+57%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$141	−$130	-92%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 13	$143	+$155	+109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$61	+$82	+134%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	Jun 13	$51	−$5	-9%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$202	−$200	-99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 12	$51	+$60	+119%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$101	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	45¢	$91	26m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	96¢	$90	47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$49	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	39¢	$51	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$167	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$112	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$279	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$123	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$35	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	45¢	$158	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	45¢	$163	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$76	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	20¢	$76	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$225	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$159	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	5¢	$11	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	43¢	$41	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	76¢	$101	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	73¢	$298	3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$143	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$61	4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	SELL Switzerland	34¢	$46	4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	60¢	$202	4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	BUY Switzerland	36¢	$51	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$51	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	45¢	$51	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.66 · official $139.65 · 31 history records