Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbf0…ff09 weather 90 markets active 9h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$708 (+5%) realized +$867 · open −$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%37W / 46L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day116.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$5
14 days+$810
30 days+$810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$598
finance 4% −$50
other 1% +$136
sports 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 35% -8.3%
≤30d 83 +6.5% -3.6% 45% 40% -3.7%
≤90d 83 +6.5% -3.6% 45% 40% -3.7%
all 83 +6.5% -3.6% 45% 40% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 40% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 29% -12.9%
15% -21.3% 24% -21.3%
20% -29.0% 17% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$62 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$867
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses37 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 90
History coverage12d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day116.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $107 $138 +$31 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $102 $130 +$28 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $215 $1 −$214 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $154 −$153 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$150 +148%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $186 −$168 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $175 −$169 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $415 +$82 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,954 +$161 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $91 +$38 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 −$37 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 −$55 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $91 +$5 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $159 −$31 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $538 +$59 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $697 +$66 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $33 +$170 +508%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $275 +$89 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 13 $33 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$6 +87%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -60%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$7 +93%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $84 −$83 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $143 +$31 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$14 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $137 −$32 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $166 −$110 -66%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $500 +$60 +12%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$15 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $642 +$399 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$64 +168%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $66 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $98 +$15 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $147 +$241 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 11 $269 −$11 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 11 $321 −$213 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 11 $565 −$387 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $257 +$93 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $42 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $84 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.98 · official $270.02 (match) · 1525 history records