Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdbee…1b6b crypto 402 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$706 (-7%) realized −$700 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%198W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days+$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$699
politics 17% −$8
other 14% −$1
tech 1% +$2
weather 0% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 48% -18.6%
≤30d 130 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 51% -12.9%
≤90d 269 -27.1% -34.0% 39% 38% -85.4%
all 391 -6.1% -15.0% 51% 44% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 44% -15.8%
10% -23.1% 42% -23.9%
15% -30.6% 42% -31.2%
20% -37.4% 41% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$700
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses198 / 193
Open positions11
Markets (closed)391 / 402
History coverage229d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 51¢ 51¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.91 · official $5.84 (match) · 889 history records