Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DB
0xdbed…3b22
sports · 136 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$122 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$107 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$459
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses46 / 55
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions35
Markets (closed)101 / 136
History coverage320d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 35 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$42
14 days−$27
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Curaçao 79¢ 93¢ $51 $60 +$9 (+17%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 50¢ 68¢ $42 $56 +$15 (+36%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Under 93¢ 86¢ $43 $40 −$3 (-7%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 16¢ 16¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Under 96¢ 92¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 95¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 70¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 54¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 6¢ 4¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 28¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Over 15¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-7%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Tunisia 7¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $40 −$5 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $24 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $21 −$1 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $27 −$1 -2%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $59 −$3 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 $0 -3%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 $0 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$20 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$14 +62%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$19 +750%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $12 +$3 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$33 +136%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +49%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 +$16 +414%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +168%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $19 −$17 -93%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $14 −$12 -86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -83%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 12 $9 −$1 -17%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 12 $14 −$13 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 +$14 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $31 +$12 +40%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$5 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $9 −$2 -25%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 40% −$319
other 29% +$75
sports 15% −$33
world 9% +$121
finance 2% +$23
tech 2% +$16
crypto 2% +$1
economics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $30 8m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 27¢ $21 17m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 7¢ $4 53m
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 75¢ $4 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $4 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 70¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 86¢ $4 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 29¢ $9 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $16 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Curaçao 79¢ $47 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 82¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $7 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 66¢ $55 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 6¢ $7 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 67¢ $29 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 78¢ $71 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $9 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 15¢ $22 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $12 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $4 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $7 8h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $4 8h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 76¢ $3 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 26¢ $9 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +4.7% -5.3% 27% 27% -16.1%
≤30d 67 +6.0% -4.1% 31% 27% -12.4%
≤90d 85 +7.1% -3.1% 39% 35% -24.9%
all 101 +7.2% -3.0% 46% 35% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 35% -11.4%
10% -12.3% 28% -19.9%
15% -20.8% 24% -27.6%
20% -28.6% 17% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.21 · official $459.21 (match) · 323 history records