Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbeb…6573 sports 183 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (524 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$145 (-13%) realized −$145 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%78W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day524.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$145
other 9% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (524 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -8.0% -16.8% 43% 33% -22.9%
≤30d 183 -8.0% -16.8% 43% 33% -22.9%
≤90d 183 -8.0% -16.8% 43% 33% -22.9%
all 183 -8.0% -16.8% 43% 33% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover524.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 33% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 30% -30.3%
15% -32.0% 22% -37.1%
20% -38.7% 16% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses78 / 105
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day524.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $3 −$1 -47%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $7 −$1 -16%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $7 −$4 -54%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $12 −$7 -62%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $9 −$2 -26%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $3 −$1 -36%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $20 −$5 -27%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $9 +$3 +31%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $1 +$2 +216%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $60 −$57 -94%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $4 −$2 -55%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $16 +$12 +72%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $13 −$1 -5%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $12 −$6 -49%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 −$4 -72%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $7 +$3 +41%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $22 −$9 -41%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $25 −$23 -92%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $24 −$23 -95%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson SELL Laura Samson 66¢ $4 4d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 100¢ $2 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson SELL Kaitlin Quevedo 33¢ $1 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran SELL Thiago Cigarran 10¢ $3 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran SELL Guido Justo 88¢ $3 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL No 54¢ $1 4d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) SELL Canada 98¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $1 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 88¢ $1 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Thiago Cigarran 14¢ $1 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 40¢ $1 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 61¢ $1 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 40¢ $1 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 61¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $1 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 53¢ $1 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 89¢ $1 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Thiago Cigarran 12¢ $1 4d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 19¢ $1 4d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 19¢ $1 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 90¢ $1 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Thiago Cigarran 10¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 17¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 17¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 17¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 17¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 17¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 17¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 11¢ $1 4d
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 93¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1204 history records