Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdbeb…f499 sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$149 (-21%) realized −$112 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%22W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$30
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$60
other 45% −$113
crypto 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +5.5% -4.5% 18% 18% -23.9%
≤30d 101 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 22% -32.8%
≤90d 101 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 22% -32.8%
all 101 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 22% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 22% -32.8%
10% -20.2% 22% -39.2%
15% -27.9% 22% -45.1%
20% -35.0% 22% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses22 / 79
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Yes 7¢ 2¢ $42 $10 −$33 (-77%)
Norway vs. France: Neither team to score first? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$19 +364%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$21 +413%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $4 +$21 +509%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $4 +$18 +442%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1 +$10 +1005%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +786%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 +$5 +158%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $8 +$13 +165%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $17 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to BUY 8¢ $15 5h
Norway vs. France: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 6h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 46h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 3d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $24 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 3d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $2 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $4 3d
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.83 · official $27.29 · 154 history records