Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbe5…476d sports 51 markets active 10d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$4 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$16
world 45% −$24
other 3% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 42 -10.0% -18.6% 45% 24% +4.9%
≤90d 42 -10.0% -18.6% 45% 24% +4.9%
all 42 -10.0% -18.6% 45% 24% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 24% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 19% -5.1%
15% -33.5% 12% -14.3%
20% -40.0% 10% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)42 / 51
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-49%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $1 $0 -12%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $4 +$2 +40%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $1 $0 -18%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $3 $0 -10%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $18 +$10 +54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $71 −$7 -9%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $2 −$1 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $28 −$1 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $16 $0 -1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $7 $0 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$16 -81%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -37%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $4 −$1 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $7 −$1 -8%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $17 +$15 +88%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $14 +$4 +30%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $8 +$3 +30%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $7 −$1 -15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $7 +$7 +93%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $7 −$1 -9%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-8.5) Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 55¢ $1 9d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 60¢ $1 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 74¢ $1 9d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 80¢ $1 9d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 72¢ $1 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 67¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 68¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 80¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 71¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 73¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 64¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 46¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 55¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 46¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 51¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $3 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $1 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 42¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $1 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 44¢ $2 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 31¢ $1 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $1 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 70¢ $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $1 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 69¢ $2 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.58 · official $22.88 · 327 history records