Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbe5…09cc other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$270 (-15%) realized −$216 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$1,101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$235
world 3% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-76.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -74.2% -76.7% 8% 8% -42.6%
≤30d 13 -74.2% -76.7% 8% 8% -42.6%
≤90d 13 -74.2% -76.7% 8% 8% -42.6%
all 13 -74.2% -76.7% 8% 8% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -76.7% 8% -42.6%
10% ← realistic here -78.9% 8% -48.1%
15% -81.0% 8% -53.1%
20% -82.8% 8% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$40 · ×6.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,101
Realized−$216
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $402 $369 −$33 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $175 $185 +$10 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $135 $140 +$5 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $160 $139 −$21 (-13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $137 $138 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $39 −$12 (-23%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $155 −$122 -79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $120 +$250 +208%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $67 −$63 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $56 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 9¢ $2 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 9¢ $18 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,101.18 · official $1,101.72 (match) · 135 history records