Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DB
0xdbe1…608d
weather · 1464 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$865 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,007 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,301
Realized−$1,007
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1443 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1450 / 1464
History coverage21d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day95.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 15 History 1450 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$944
7 days−$703
14 days−$460
30 days−$1,007
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $770 $771 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $770 $771 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $770 $770 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $770 $770 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $770 $768 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $770 $767 −$3 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $770 $767 −$3 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $625 $623 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $607 $605 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $504 $505 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $399 $400 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $371 $371 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $266 $266 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12? No 100¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 25? No 100¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Yes 100¢ 0¢ $770 $0 −$770 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 25? Yes 100¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 71°F or below on May 17? Yes 100¢ 0¢ $272 $0 −$272 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 71°F or below on May 17? Jun 14 $272 −$272 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $770 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $388 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $382 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June Jun 14 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $692 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $353 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $770 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $366 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 13? Jun 14 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $535 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $770 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $735 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $412 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? Jun 14 $730 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $691 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $645 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $870 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $493 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $770 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $278 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $770 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $469 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $407 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $363 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $737 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $770 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $527 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $770 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$732
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $607 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $770 21m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $341 57m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $429 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $504 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $209 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $145 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $625 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $770 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $770 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $770 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $330 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $440 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $770 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $363 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $371 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $98 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $770 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $22 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $206 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $96 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $394 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $388 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 536 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 1450 -0.3% -9.8% 100% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1450 -0.3% -9.8% 100% 0% -9.7%
all 1450 -0.3% -9.8% 100% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover95.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,300.59 · official $8,300.59 (match) · 3500 history records