Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbe0…047b sports 322 markets active 4d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%128W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$8
other 20% −$13
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -29.8% -36.5% 0% 0% -36.7%
≤30d 11 -41.6% -47.2% 0% 0% -49.8%
≤90d 322 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 33% -10.7%
all 322 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 33% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 33% -10.7%
10% -22.0% 30% -19.3%
15% -29.5% 25% -27.1%
20% -36.4% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses128 / 194
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)322 / 322
History coverage79d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 322 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 −$1 -65%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $1 −$1 -62%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $1 $0 -26%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler May 28 $2 $0 -23%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Joblife vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group D May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Hamburg European Open: Terence Atmane vs Tomas Etcheverry May 18 $1 $0 -11%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 18 $1 $0 -18%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $1 $0 -9%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage May 17 $1 $0 -10%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Fiona Ferro vs Elina May 17 $1 $0 +6%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks May 17 $1 $0 -10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1 −$1 -62%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Yulia Pu May 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 16 $1 +$1 +77%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $1 $0 -14%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $1 $0 +30%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 $0 -4%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Zizou Bergs May 15 $1 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1 $0 -10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $1 $0 +30%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 13 $1 $0 -6%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $1 $0 -15%
Cordoba: Samuel Linde vs Tomas Farjat May 12 $1 $0 +7%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Bengaluru 2: Omar Jasika vs Hamish Stewart May 12 $1 $0 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $2 $0 -19%
Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Oeiras 4: Henrique Rocha vs Roman Safiullin May 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 11 $5 $0 -3%
Paris: McCartney Kessler vs Yulia Putintseva May 11 $1 −$1 -53%
Paris: Maddison Inglis vs Anastasia Zakharova May 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 11 $7 +$1 +19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Linda Noskova May 11 $1 +$1 +64%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok May 11 $1 −$1 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 74¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 59¢ $1 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 78¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $1 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Arizona Diamondbacks $0 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks $1 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Minnesota Twins $0 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins $1 6d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova SELL Hernan Casanova $0 6d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 10¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo SELL 3DMAX 15¢ $1 20d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo BUY 3DMAX 19¢ $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler SELL McCartney Kessler $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler BUY McCartney Kessler 13¢ $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler SELL Diana Shnaider 87¢ $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler BUY Diana Shnaider 89¢ $1 20d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming $1 22d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 29d
Valorant: Joblife vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group D BUY Ghools Esports $1 30d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 30d
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 17¢ $1 30d
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 16¢ $1 30d
Hamburg European Open: Terence Atmane vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Terence Atmane 14¢ $1 30d
Hamburg European Open: Terence Atmane vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Terence Atmane 15¢ $1 30d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 19¢ $1 30d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 22¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 699 history records